(Click on polling place for results), Despite major changes in boundaries, Oxley has remained a relatively safe Labor seat compared to Labor's two-party preferred vote across Queensland. Hope that clears a few things up for you mate Even if its somehow a close election 20+ seats could change hands between the 2 parties. Our People Toggle. The Greens candidate Elizabeth Watson-Brown is a well known architect and has appeal to the middle class voters of the electorate. It has changed hands four times since the 2007 election, most recently in 2019 when the LNP's Terry Young defeated short-term Labor MP Susan Lamb. Also may I point out here 7/10 people have never heard of him either. Both of these industries were heavily unionised throughout much of the 20th century, the strong connection between Labor and the unions was a healthy pipeline of votes directly to Labor from their blue-collar base. This was a marginal seat at a very bad election in qld. The Regional population 2020 2021 Financial Year report, released this week, highlights Ripley, in Blairs south, growing by 19.4% an estimated 1,889 additional residents in a pandemic year. If they would go & never return, then id be interested !. J Hogg from 1998 to 2000. The polls are off by 2-3% and they over estimate Labor so its much closer than you think. Betting markets are clearly expecting a Labor tide in Queensland. Authorised by Clive Palmer. Forest Lake, QLD, 4078, PO Box 6022 When May 21, 2022 at 8:00am - 6pm Where Australia 253 RSVPS Will you come? After Bob Hawkes win, Hayden was appointed Foreign Minister. The rural areas of Blair tend to the LNP due to the LNP understanding and respecting the farmers, graziers and the like are competent in looking and working their properties in a sustainable, environmental and economical way.. D Beddall MP from 1993 to 1998. They were furious at Labor for what they perceived to be an abandonment of their blue-collar base for metropolitan progressives at a time their jobs became increasingly vulnerable. Independent Oxley is a group of passionate locals who believe in community independent rather than party representation. Candidates. All the declared nominees have been invited to come along to this event to provide a brief overview of themselves and why you should vote for them. Join us as we hear from all the local candidates in the running to be the Federal Member for Oxley at this year's election. [1] Why do we have problems with the Murray-Darling system running dry, and dryland salinity? Although, these lower vaccination-rates are a lot more present in the neighbouring division of Wright. Closely following is the People's Democratic Party candidate, Atiku Abubakar and thereafter, Peter Obi of the Labour Party. 1996,1977 and 1975 were all better for the coalition and worse for Labor. The ensuing by-election was won by the ALPs Les Scott. Scott held the seat for the remainder of the Hawke/Keating government, up to the 1996 election. Its like Banks. Disorder can be creative, & order can become uninteresting. I also dont understand why Neumann was demoted to the backbench, Does Albanese dislike Queensland or the MP himself? Booths have been divided into five areas. Furtive Lawngnome Ripoll was succeeded by Labors Milton Dick, and Dick won a second term in 2019. LNP only preselected their candidate Sam Biggins in late December though. There will be a swing to Labor here so this seat will not be in contention. The FEC will update its map to reflect the new congressional districts and boundaries once information has been made available from each state. But its now not looking on the cards despite the narrow margin. Candidates Danielle Mutton ( Greens) Michelle Jaques ( Liberal Democrats) Quinton Cunningham ( United Australia) Liz Suduk ( One Nation) Shayne Neumann ( Labor) Maria Pitman ( Australian Values) Angela Lowery ( Animal Justice) Sam Biggins ( Liberal National) Assessment . Seriously what is your problem (s) ? Mr Green's campaign Facebook page and website have been taken down. For the WA seats, I doubt that Moore or Canning would fall since Labor would probably reduce their resources spent in WA and focus their efforts into sandbagging Sam Lim in Tangney and Dutton will certainly do whatever he can to save his factional allies Ian Goodenough and Andrew Hastie. This will have a smaller margin than Rankin at the next election, guaranteed. Ive set up a generic election open thread to go up in the morning. Our Candidates. or more precisely he id]s a massive sook, & cry-baby, & mamas boy !!. It is your call of course, but im concerned in a number of ways. Hayden held the seat until 1988, serving as Health Minister 1972-75, Treasurer 1975, Opposition Leader 1977-83 and Foreign Minister 1983-88. Voters rewarded the incumbent Fraser government in 1975, Indeed 1996 was the first time since 1949 an incumbent Labor government lost. Election results in Blair at the 2019 federal election Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party and One Nation. The 1949 incarnation's best-known member was Bill Hayden, the Labor Opposition Leader between 1977 and 1983, when he resigned under pressure the same day that the 1983 election which swept Bob Hawke to power was called. President of Federal Young Labor. Hanson formed One Nation in her term in the House of Representatives, and contested Blair in 1998. Like Ryan, this is an almost three way contest where LNP are strong but Greens are increasingly viable. Hanson contested the new seat of Blair, which now covered Ipswich, which had previously been included in Oxley. On February 19, 2018, Pennsylvania's Supreme Court released a new congressional map for Pennsylvania. Even then, Id be surprised to see the Libs not shift into gear (in Blair at least) as election day nears. Labor have dominated this area on a state level, and Milton Dick in Oxley is a great member and is very visible across both electorates. Even a small swing of 1-2% will make it a comfortable win for the ALP. Those booths in the City of Ipswich have been divided into four parts. The seat has moved away from Labor in recent years (Like the overlapping state seats) and Fraser was actually the incumbent prime minister in 1975. He joined Gough Whitlams ministry in 1972, and served as Treasurer for the final five months of the Whitlam government in 1975. The 2022 Labor candidate is Rebecca Fanning,. Make child care cheaper so that it's easier for working families to get ahead. Joint Standing: Electoral Matters served from 15.9.2016 to 11.4.2022; Joint Statutory: Broadcasting of Parliamentary Proceedings served as Chair from 26.7.2022 to present; Party positions. With a rare QLD leader of the ALP, I wasnt thinking 2013 was a high water mark for LNP in QLD, but it was in NSW. This is a little surprising given how marginal the seat is. AUSTRALIA: AGE DISTRIBUTION . The main parties on the ballot include the Australian Labor Party, the Coalition (Liberal and National parties), the Greens, the United Australia Party, the Liberal Democrats and One Nation. Select 'Find your electorate'. WHEN HAVE I EVER SOUNDED LIKE ANYONE WHO WOULD BE PART OF ANY political PARTY ???. They would have to do very poorly in Queensland to be in trouble here. Independent Oxley Maybe there should be a thread just for general election soothsaying. It includes all of the Inala housing estate and the nearby newer estates of Forest Lake and Springfield, as well as the Centenary Suburbs of Middle Park, Mount Ommaney, Jindalee and Sinnamon Park. Appreciate you sharing! You have entered an incorrect email address! Choose your state: All ACT NSW NT QLD SA TAS VIC WA. Election funding Electoral law backgrounders Authorising electoral communication Learn about elections Delivering an election Managing the electoral roll Altering electoral divisions Determining ballot paper order Planning voting services Counting the votes Voting and the Government The three levels of government When elections are held The LNP are clearly dominant in Queensland at a federal level and theres obviously a perception, particularly in regional areas, that they can at least get good deals out of their Liberal partners. Even if they werent, they cant do what Howard did in 1998 because sandbagging alone is too much of a risk when youre just hovering at the majority line. I would NEVER be so mild !. Geography Blair covers most of the City of Ipswich as well as Somerset Regional Council. I doubt theyd lose seats to the UAP/PHON anyway. That is to go with Jim Chalmers as treasurer. Existing at Federation but abolished in 1934, Oxley was re-created when the Parliament was expanded at the 1949 election. Then why are landholders in Queensland clearing the equivalent of 1000 MCGs of tree cover each day? The WA and QLD L/NP parties are also not cutting through (as opposed to 2019) and the only seats which are definitely safe are seats like Cook, Kennedy and Clark, where the local member is so entrenched they wont lose until they retire, resign or die. Official websites use .gov The following members have announced they are not contesting the upcoming election: Labor. Even my (still overpoweringly vital ) 85 year old mother the Valkyrie accused me of going off half-cocked the other night.! Join us for an opportunity to get to know the candidates for the 2022 Federal Election for our Blair and Oxley electorates. The LNP narrowly won in northern Ipswich (50.3%) and won more sizeable majorities in the rural areas, winning 55.7% in rural parts of the Ipswich council area and 57.7% in the Somerset council area. Equally a long term govt is not necessarily a good govt. If you cannot search . Major "Moogy" Sumner Senate Candidate for SA. Nobody believes me but we shall see! Despite tax payor funding political parties and candidates (70M$ in 2022 election), major political . Organiser of the Australian Labor Party State Branch (Qld.) Oxley Party Candidate Votes % % National: Melinda Pavey: 25,115 51.74 0.93 Labor: Susan Jenvey 9,904 20.40 6.28 Greens: Arthur Bain 6,179 12.73 2.39 I see you say ALP aim to hold on here on other pages. Do you want to save current progress? Walt Secord MLC - announced 19 August 2022; Adam Searle MLC - lost preselection 15 September 2022; Shaoquett Moselmane MLC - did not nominate for endorsement; Guy Zangari MP - announced 17 October 2022; Paul Lynch MP - not preselected November 2022 I dont think any of the eastern states can be ignored period. are you a VICTORIAN, or some other sub-species. Indeed, it is almost universally accepted that the Libs are going to lose at least three seats *minimum* Boothby, Swan and Pearce. The current division is the second to bear the name, and was created in 1949. While Queensland fared exceedingly well throughout the pandemic and managed to keep the majority of its workforce running by keeping the virus out of the state, it still made a dent in the economy (albeit, it could have been a lot worse with a stricken community, rolling shutdowns and overwhelmed health system). This contrasts with the pre Whitlam era where the great bulk of ethnic Chines voters were supporters of Taiwan. Sort this out or neither of yousell be coming to Chrissie!!. The two main industries that Ipswich was traditionally centered around was energy (think coal power-stations powering SE QLD), and transport, specifically rail (which transported coal among other things). @John, howd you figure that? LNP with PHON preferences swinging to each other can swing the seat to either PHON or LNP. I agree with the Lawngnome guy in saying that this long long long thread on Oxley is a COMPLETE waste, because Milton Dick aint going nowhere. Paul Murray calls Cameron Dick by name, Dick by nature!. Unless of course you mean the LNP specifically in QLD; its hard to tell on this site since we all use the terms interchanegably! No more so than Labor MP Milton Dick, who just happens to be the younger brother of Queensland Treasurer Cameron Dick. Labor hold. I had good links to ethnic Chinese in 1970s when the Friends of Free China used the same Post Office Box as the Captive Nations Council. Booths in Somerset local government area have been grouped together. ", Mr Green's name has since been removed, with the page now stating: "Hear from Sen. Amanda & Sen. Scarr about how you can become involved in the federal campaign. Could Australia ban TikTok? Oxley. A Trybooking page for the campaign launch initially said: "Join with our warrior Senator Amanda Stoker & Senator Paul Scarr to launch the campaign for Chris Green the LNP Candidate for Oxley. Click here for a list only including challengers to incumbents. The teals and Greens seats arent likely going to be won by Labor now they have got them. Ipswich, particularly its South West fringes have been at the center of QLDs rapid population growth since 2019. Polls dont decide elections voters do. Oxley is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of New South Wales. ), Labor recorded two-party preferred majorities in 27 of the 34 polling places used in 2019, the Liberals polling well in the Centenary suburbs in the north of the electorate, but Labor dominant further south. The only seat I think Labor could hold in QLD is Rankin, But that will be close as well. Leave Winediamond out of it we have the same local polling booth and he thinks Zimmerman is a waste of space so thats good enough for me. TrendRadars. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS They have a lot more to gain in targeting the remaining Lib seats in Melbourne and Adelaide. Let's find an outstanding community Independent candidate for the NSW state electorate of Oxley. Ipswich is rapidly transforming from an industrial hub of SE QLD (the powerbox of Brisbane), into a dormitory suburb of aspirational young families who work cant quite afford to live in Brisbane or the Gold Coast. In 1996, the seat became most well known for controversial social conservative MP Pauline Hanson who was elected as a Liberal-turned-independent, but the seat was heavily redistributed in 1997, splitting her main support base of Ipswich between Oxley and Blair. Redirecting to /news/elections/federal/2022/guide/oxle I did the calculations for Blair. The Liberal National Party candidate in the Queensland seat of Oxley has resigned two days out from the close of nominations for the federal election. Organiser of the Australian Labor Party State Branch (Qld.) I dont think Scott Morrison has done any campaigning here. Couple that with LNP base vote strengthening in more blue collar seats (bigger margins in Forde, Petrie Lindsey and becoming competitive in Blair, Fowler, Werriwa, Lilley) you can see why they might see a long term opportunity in Oxley. Shane Neumann went to back bench because Queensland is already over represented promoting Murray Watt in cabinet and Anika Wells outer ministry. This shows concern about what is happening to that base. 2022 federal election Division finder - NSW Division finder - Vic. Interestingly Oxley did retain for Labor in the Fraser years (Someone tell me what the boundaries were when Bill Hayden held this seat) Everyone assumed 2013 was a high watermark for the coalition and it was not. Across the country voting patterns confirm that people want their MP to represent the community rather than the big parties. Campaign Director of the Australian Labor Party State Branch (Qld.) ALP retain. Yes Wreathy, I specifically meant the LNP in Queensland.Youre correct in that the Coalition must try to win seats like Hunter, Eden Monaro and Corangamite to ward off loses to Labor.The Queensland LN P are quite concerned about the seat of Brisbane. Select the 'Find online' button. 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